German Schoolboy corrects NASA's asteroid figures

[DarkestSoul X21 offline]

I saw this on Yahoo News and just thought you guys might be interested.

BERLIN (AFP) - A 13-year-old German schoolboy corrected NASA's estimates on the chances of an asteroid colliding with Earth, a German newspaper reported Tuesday, after spotting the boffins had miscalculated.

Nico Marquardt used telescopic findings from the Institute of Astrophysics in Potsdam (AIP) to calculate that there was a 1 in 450 chance that the Apophis asteroid will collide with Earth, the Potsdamer Neuerster Nachrichten reported.

NASA had previously estimated the chances at only 1 in 45,000 but told its sister organisation, the European Space Agency (ESA), that the young whizzkid had got it right.

The schoolboy took into consideration the risk of Apophis running into one or more of the 40,000 satellites orbiting Earth during its path close to the planet on April 13 2029.

Those satellites travel at 3.07 kilometres a second (1.9 miles), at up to 35,880 kilometres above earth -- and the Apophis asteroid will pass by earth at a distance of 32,500 kilometres.

If the asteroid strikes a satellite in 2029, that will change its trajectory making it hit earth on its next orbit in 2036.

Both NASA and Marquardt agree that if the asteroid does collide with earth, it will create a ball of iron and iridium 320 metres (1049 feet) wide and weighing 200 billion tonnes, which will crash into the Atlantic Ocean.

The shockwaves from that would create huge tsunami waves, destroying both coastlines and inland areas, whilst creating a thick cloud of dust that would darken the skies indefinitely.

The 13-year old made his discovery as part of a regional science competition for which he submitted a project entitled: "Apophis -- The Killer Astroid."

[Nightsabre offline]

This was denied...

"In April 2008 news organizations widely, but incorrectly, reported that 13 year-old Nico Marquardt from Potsdam, Germany, had recalculated the odds as part of a science competition, and found the risk had been underestimated. His project took into account the possibility that the asteroid would collide with one or more of the estimated 40,000 artificial satellites orbiting the earth, possibly causing a shift in its orbit, and increasing the probability of a collision with Earth on its next fly-by in 2036 to 1 in 450. Initial news reports claimed that NASA confirmed these results with the ESA. But both NASA and the ESA have since denied these claims. On April 15, 2008, a German ESA spokesman told news organizations that "... A small boy did do these calculations, but he made a mistake ... NASA's figures are correct."

Now you can get into the "cover up" conspiracy theories. But either way, this isn't the first time things like this have taken place. Also, take into consideration they are trying to predict the unpredictable. It's a object in space it has nothing (albeit gravity) to stop it's path. Scientist have enough trouble predicting weather here on Earth so I don't plan on believing anything they "supposedly" predicted. Let alone something is nearly 2 decades away. I'd also like to point out that there is the chance that this entire story is false. Yahoo! has been known to put many bogus stories on there pages.

[. offline]

no the coment does a have a chance of hitiing the earth in 2038 but it all falls upon weather it can hit this tiny sweet spot when it passes us in 2029. It's a slim chance, sure, but I think we'd all rather have a slimm-ER chance that 1 in 450,000. Maybe like 1 in a million.... 1 in a zillion.

still I don't understand, we have had 3 decades to work on a solution. Why aren't we just expecting the worse and preparing for it? idoits.

On the brightside, it's going to be some sight to see. And if it is the end of the world, well then how lucky are we? We're going to be the ones that see something as magnificent as the end of the world. The end of life on a planet. Rather morbid, but thats the only comforting thought I can put together in it. And lucky me, I'll be 40 if it does happens so my younger days will be behind me.

[SilverPrince offline]

still I don't understand, we have had 3 decades to work on a solution. Why aren't we just expecting the worse and preparing for it? idoits.

Because preparations on such a scale would cost large amounts of money and use valuable resources. It's much more fiscally viable to only go to such extremes if absolutely needed.

And whether he was correct or not, a 13 year old doing NASA-level calculations, on par with people with PhDs in Physics? That is pretty durn impressive, in my opinion.

[Carth]

LOL Armageddon.

That's all I have to say. I sure hope it doesn't happen...

[Tangent128 offline]

We iz aww gonna dye!

Actually, dyeing the asteroid black is an option to deflect it.

[. offline]

still I don't understand, we have had 3 decades to work on a solution. Why aren't we just expecting the worse and preparing for it? idoits.

Because preparations on such a scale would cost large amounts of money and use valuable resources. It's much more fiscally viable to only go to such extremes if absolutely needed.

And whether he was correct or not, a 13 year old doing NASA-level calculations, on par with people with PhDs in Physics? That is pretty durn impressive, in my opinion.

can you really put a price tag on making a full proof plan on stopping the end of the world? Fine it misses, but then we got a solution should the problem ever arouse again.

[SilverPrince offline]

No, probably not. But there are several theoretical options for preventing an asteroid impact, and I'm sure all of them are pretty expensive. I can see the logic of having some things "just in case" but the problem is that many people wouldn't want to pay for facilities or equipment or whatever that might never, ever be used.

All of a sudden, I want to watch "Deep Impact". Which I still say is errily similar to the episode "A Hot Shower".

[RySenkari offline]

Apophis is a 380-meter wide asteroid. Its impact would cause an explosion with the energy of 880 megatons. This is not nearly enough to end human civilization.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:2037 ... f_Risk.jpg

This map indicates the possible locations where Apophis may strike. The worst-case scenario would be either a strike directly hitting Caracas, Venezuela, which would instantly kill several million people in Caracas city proper alone, or a strike in the Pacific Ocean 500 miles off Malibu, which would cause a 50-foot high tsunami wave to hit the West Coast, Hawaii, and Japan. Both would be horrific disasters for sure, but neither would be world-ending. Just 100 years ago, Siberia was struck by an asteroid about 1/8th the size of Apophis. It would take an asteroid about 10 times Apophis' size to even threaten to cause the end of humanity.

[Malkmusian offline]

The Mayans got their doomsdays wrong.

[Kamekai offline]

Lol, this all seems so irrelevant to me. >.> If it happens, it happens. I could care less. Now the only thing that interests me is that German kid. Wow. He definitely has a secure future.

[timekitten offline]

still I don't understand, we have had 3 decades to work on a solution. Why aren't we just expecting the worse and preparing for it? idoits.

Don't you watch the movies? Long term plans never work. Only the last minute 'We're going to die!' unthinkable plans work.

This reminds me of this kid correcting Smithsonian. Though the German kid wasn't as correct, props to both of these. Perhaps there is hope for humanity.

[optimus304 offline]

Ahhh another day, another doomsday prediction. It never ends does it.

Im still holding out for Armageddon to be kinda like Gears of war.. with the whole deadly mole people and such...